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7月21日 Why I Think Natalie Holloway Was RapedNatalie Holloway, of course, is the 18 year old young woman from Alabama who disappeared in Aruba at the end of May and whose case has been all over the news, expecially Fox News, since then. Since her body has not been found and none of the suspects has given an account of what happened there has been alot of speculation. And some of that speculation is pretty bad. Two theories that I think can pretty much be ruled out are that she died from a drug or alcohol overdose or as an accident during sexual intercourse. The first was put forward by a former homicide detective last night on O'Reilly and the latter by another supposed expert on Fox News recently.
Here's what we know about the case: Natalie had been seen hanging out with Joran on days prior to her disappearance; there was likely a romantic connection between the two; on the night of her disappearance, she left the bar with Joran and his friends, the Kalpoe brothers; they claim to have dropped her off at her hotel but the video surveillance has no record of that; Joran and the Kalpoe brothers have lied, changed their stories a number of times and are being generally uncooperative; Paul van der Sloot, Joran's father, is also being somewhat uncooperative with police.
Let me say this first: if someone is missing and you have nothing to do with it, even if you were last seen with the person, you tell the truth. I think that is the natural human response. If you know you didn't do anything wrong, you cooperate with the authorities by telling them what you know. One reason is that you are innocent and believe that that will come to light when you tell the truth since everything that is discovered in the future will be consistent with your innocence, since you are in fact innocent. Second, if you know this person who is missing, you would likely want to do everything you could to help her be found or at least for it to be discovered what happened to her, since you would likely be genuinely concerned about her and her family.
So the very fact that Joran and the Kalpoe brothers have lied and are being uncooperative is very strong evidence that they did something wrong.
If she simply died of a drug or alcohol overdose, there was no reason for them to get rid of the body. I think that's obvious. It's not a crime if someone you know overdoses. So much for that first theory. As for the second theory, if a woman dies while you are having consensual sex with her, either because she is very intoxicated or you are too rough with her or a combination, that is, of course, a huge tragedy and difficult to deal with, but it is not criminal. In either of these cases, since no crime was committed, there was no reason for Joran not to call the police immediately.
One hypothesis that I've also heard is that Joran left her on the beach after doing whatever they did and whatever happened to her happened after he left. Again, this doesn't fit with the fact that he is lying, changing his story and being uncooperative. If this is what happened, you tell the truth and go get the "real killers" - who, on this hypothesis, happen to actually exist.
What seems very likely is Joran raped Natalie and the Kalpoe brothers either helped or participated. They either killed her in the process or killed her afterwards when they realized that she would report them and they would be in big trouble. Then they got rid of the body to try and cover this up. This fits with the previous romantic relationship between Joran and Natalie. It fits with three young men leaving a bar late at night with an attractive and intoxicated young woman. And it fits with the fact that Joran and the Kalpoe brothers are lying and being uncooperative.
The problem of course is that this is all circumstantial evidence. Everybody always wants direct evidence such as physical evidence, like Natalie's blood on Joran's clothes or under his fingernails, or eyewitness testimony. Even without this, though, I think it's highly likely that Natalie Holloway was at least raped and accidentally killed in the process or, more likely, raped and killed afterwards. In the absence of physical evidence, Joran should be tried for rape and accidental death (manslaughter) and the Kalpoe brothers for aiding him. Since we can't know if the murder was accidental or intentional or if the Kalpoe brothers merely helped Joran or participated, they should be tried for the lesser charge which the circumstantial evidence seems to strongly support. That's my opinion at least. 评论 (18)
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